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CMRC

Commerce.comD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed strong 14% GMV growth, improving NRR, positive GAAP earnings for the second consecutive quarter, and non-GAAP operating margin expansion to 9.6%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
AI and product investments may not convert into durable subscription growth.
Momentum
94
Value
59
Sentiment
17
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.35 · Bull $3.10 · Bear $1.65Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.00
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d +1.5
Value59 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment17 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI and product investments may not convert into durable subscription growth.
  • • Gross-margin compression could offset profitability and operating-efficiency gains.
  • • Revenue growth was effectively flat, ARR growth was only 2%, subscription revenue declined 1%, gross margin fell four percentage points, and U.S.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Mixed Q2 earnings digestion

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
94
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
17
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-10.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 94.0 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 17.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$294.98M
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
82.86M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-14.8
P/S (TTM)
1.03
P/FCF (TTM)
12.36
Rev YoY
+0.1%
EPS YoY
-112.7%
Gross Margin
+75.3%
Op Margin
+2.8%
Net Debt
$22.52M
Current Ratio
1.98
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data