B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CMPX
Compass TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive interpretation is that the April BTC update showed statistically significant ORR and PFS benefit, while the May 5 earnings release reiterated a planned FDA meeting, possible BLA timing later in 2026, and $195 million of cash expected to fund operations into 2028 [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-Q-2026-05-05]. If FDA focuses on the totality of efficacy and the crossover issue is manageable, the post-collapse equity value leaves room for recovery.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
CMPX remains a low-coverage small-cap biotech, which increases volatility and lowers confidence that consensus targets fully reflect the latest clinical debate.
Momentum
35
Value
41
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.90 · Bull $4.50 · Bear $0.80Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.92
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CMPX remains a low-coverage small-cap biotech, which increases volatility and lowers confidence that consensus targets fully reflect the latest clinical debate.
- • Even with runway into 2028, the company used about $18 million of operating cash in Q1 2026 and remains pre-revenue, so later financing risk is deferred rather than removed [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • The bear case is that the key survival endpoint did not work in intent-to-treat terms: median OS was 8.9 months versus 9.4 months for control, and management's crossover explanation still leaves approval risk high.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-07
FDA interaction and potential BLA path for tovecimig
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
35
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 34.9 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 55.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$416M
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
180.09M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.5
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.48
Rev YoY
-100.0%
EPS YoY
-6.3%
Gross Margin
-94.6%
Op Margin
-7273.4%
Net Debt
-$199.08M
Current Ratio
11.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data