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CME

CME GroupB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained derivatives volatility and higher clearing volumes drive above-consensus revenue and margin expansion; premium multiple persists for market-share leaders.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Competition from alternative trading/clearing venues
Momentum
70
Value
61
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $293.75 · Bull $327.00 · Bear $229.00Analysis 2026-02-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $284.40
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +2.2
Value61 · Δ7d +9.3
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Competition from alternative trading/clearing venues
  • • Execution or technology outages affecting clearing confidence
  • • Protracted low volatility, fee compression, or adverse regulatory action reduces cleared volumes and compression of growth, returning multiples toward historical sector lows.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-06

Quarterly / FY reporting cadence (assumed next major report)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+17.1
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+9.3
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 70.3 / Value 61.2 / Sentiment 66.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$327.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$293.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$229.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$96.32B
Beta
0.29
Shares Out
359.58M
P/E (TTM)
26.7
P/S (TTM)
8.78
P/FCF (TTM)
530.12
Rev YoY
+0.8%
EPS YoY
+2.7%
Gross Margin
+82.7%
Op Margin
+65.1%
Net Debt
-$791.2M
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data