RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

CME

CME GroupB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Broad Q3 volume growth, record market-data revenue and high adjusted operating margin support further earnings growth if activity persists. Post-print revisions were constructive: Morgan Stanley raised its target to $359 from $337 while retaining Overweight; other reported increases include UBS to $310 from $270 and Wells Fargo to $333 from $315.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Google Cloud migration could involve variable and duplicative on-premises costs; management expects market migration to begin in late 2027, not immediately. CME earnings call transcript
Momentum
87
Value
51
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $320.00 · Bull $350.00 · Bear $260.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $316.38
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +10.7
Value51 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Google Cloud migration could involve variable and duplicative on-premises costs; management expects market migration to begin in late 2027, not immediately. CME earnings call transcript
  • • The planned CEO transition remains future and conditional: Duffy continues as Chairman and CEO through December 31, 2026 under the cited agreement, while Fitzpatrick's CEO appointment is tied to the later of March 1, 2027 and the 2026 Form 10-K filing, unless Duffy leaves the role earlier. [#REL-1e1b22a9-667f-4e15-844c-1d94945af956] [#REL-8a7d9394-de03-49fc-92d7-165d07379c86] CME executive agreement
  • • The beat was modest relative to consensus, and strong volume may normalize as volatility changes.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-30

Q3 earnings strength meets a higher valuation bar

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.7
Δ21d
+27.7
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-14.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 87.4 / Value 50.9 / Sentiment 61.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$320.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$105.53B
Beta
0.29
Shares Out
359.58M
P/E (TTM)
26.7
P/S (TTM)
8.78
P/FCF (TTM)
530.12
Rev YoY
+0.8%
EPS YoY
+2.7%
Gross Margin
+82.7%
Op Margin
+65.1%
Net Debt
-$791.2M
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data