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CMC

Commercial MetalsC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
View Chart
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that CMC delivered a clean Q3 beat, core EBITDA rose 78.6% year over year, Q4 EBITDA is guided higher sequentially, and management framed Q3 headwinds as temporary rather than demand-driven. Precast contributions, TAG benefits, and deleveraging create a credible multi-quarter improvement path.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
A negative post-print share reaction despite the earnings beat implies elevated expectations and raises the risk that any Q4 miss on margins, backlog conversion, or pricing could pressure the stock again.
Momentum
34
Value
58
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $73.00 · Bull $80.00 · Bear $56.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-16 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $80.09
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d +4.8
Value58 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -10.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
34
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
-26.9
Value
58
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
56
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.3
Δ21d
-8.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 34.2 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 55.9

Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-16
Market Cap
$7.35B
Beta
1.49
Shares Out
110.62M
P/E (TTM)
100.7
P/S (TTM)
1.04
P/FCF (TTM)
34.97
Rev YoY
+21.5%
EPS YoY
+273.7%
Gross Margin
+18.5%
Op Margin
+2.0%
Net Debt
$484.92M
Current Ratio
2.38
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology