B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CIFR
Cipher DigitalANasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that investors may look through a weak mining quarter because management added a third hyperscale lease, secured a new revolver, and reiterated on-schedule progress at Barber Lake and Black Pearl. The packet's target summary still implies upside versus the May 7 anchor, but analyst-count and detailed revision evidence are unavailable here, so the bull case should remain conditional on visible construction execution rather than assumed estimate upgrades.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.2.
What can break
Barber Lake includes service-performance obligations to Fluidstack, and failure to provide required services could create additional costs under the lease [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
5
Value
35
Sentiment
98
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $32.17
Why
Momentum5 · Δ7d +2.6
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment98 · Δ7d -13.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Barber Lake includes service-performance obligations to Fluidstack, and failure to provide required services could create additional costs under the lease [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • Interest expense became a much larger earnings drag after multiple debt issuances, and the company changed its primary non-GAAP metric to Adjusted EBITDA because interest expense is now significant [#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • The bear read is that Q1 still showed falling revenue, a much larger net loss, and sharply higher interest burden while the equity value already reflects substantial HPC-transition success; if construction timing, tenant readiness, or financing assumptions wobble, the stock can quickly revert to being judged on weaker legacy mining economics.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Q1 update confirmed another hyperscale lease, a $200 million revolver, and on-schedule builds
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
5
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+0.2
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.7
Sentiment
98
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.2
Δ21d
-13.2
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 5.2 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 97.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
28%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.68B
Beta
2.96
Shares Out
415.03M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.6
P/S (TTM)
34.75
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.53
Rev YoY
-43.0%
EPS YoY
+435.2%
Gross Margin
-88.4%
Op Margin
-112.8%
Net Debt
$377.49M
Current Ratio
3.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data