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CHYM

Chime FinancialD
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary sources support a real earnings step-up: first GAAP-profitable quarter, raised FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance, improving MyPay loss performance, and a fresh $200 million repurchase authorization. The packet’s median target of about $31.35 remains far above the $19.01 anchor price, so valuation support exists if execution holds.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
A substantial majority of revenue still depends on interchange economics and bank partners maintaining the small-issuer exemption under the Durbin framework [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
99
Value
40
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $34.95
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d -0.6
Value40 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment42 · Δ7d +1.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A substantial majority of revenue still depends on interchange economics and bank partners maintaining the small-issuer exemption under the Durbin framework [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
  • • Chime remains dependent on bank partners for account issuance, cards, and lending; losing or constraining those relationships would disrupt the model [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
  • • The post-print setup is not cleanly bullish because Q1 had a seasonal tax-refund tailwind, Q2 revenue guidance only roughly brackets consensus, and post-earnings target-revision data available through secondary aggregators is incomplete and somewhat inconsistent rather than broadly confirming a stronger Street reset.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-20

Post-earnings digestion of Q1 beat, first GAAP profit, and raised FY26 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-3.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 98.7 / Value 39.6 / Sentiment 42.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.91B
Beta
-
Shares Out
378.59M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-11.8
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
40.18
Rev YoY
+10.6%
EPS YoY
-102.8%
Gross Margin
+86.8%
Op Margin
-0.8%
Net Debt
-$933.92M
Current Ratio
4.62
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data