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CHCO

CityD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
CHCO enters 2026 with record 2025 earnings, 5.4% loan growth, a still-healthy 3.94% reported net interest margin, low nonperforming assets at 0.32% of loans and OREO, strong regulatory capital, and a newly authorized buyback equal to roughly 7% of shares outstanding. Those facts support a case for steady EPS accretion and downside support from capital return.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
News driver: Kansas City Fed's Schmid says inflation 'stubborn' and 'sticky,' policy rate not restrictive.
What can break
Catalyst depth is modest; absent a strong operating print, capital return alone may not rerate the shares materially.
Momentum
64
Value
50
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $123.00 · Bull $138.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $140.40
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d -2.5
Value50 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: Kansas City Fed's Schmid says inflation 'stubborn' and 'sticky,' policy rate not restrictive.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catalyst depth is modest; absent a strong operating print, capital return alone may not rerate the shares materially.
  • • Credit cost normalization could reverse some of the 2025 benefit from the reserve release on an upgraded credit.
  • • The thesis is still mostly a monitoring view.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

April 30 dividend payment with early read-through on capital return follow-through

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-4.5
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 64.1 / Value 49.8 / Sentiment 52.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$138.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$123.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.05B
Beta
0.51
Shares Out
14.05M
P/E (TTM)
14.0
P/S (TTM)
5.73
P/FCF (TTM)
21.51
Rev YoY
+0.9%
EPS YoY
+2.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+40.8%
Net Debt
$365.56M
Current Ratio
0.09
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data