B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CG
Carlyle GroupANasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.1
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+92.3
Score
AI commentary
The company-source gap is closed by the August 5 Form 8-K and attached earnings materials. News tone is positive following the Q2 release, but later T+3 analyst revisions and trusted market-reaction attribution remain unavailable. The August 6 anchor price was $48.88 after the August 5 release, but no clean pre-release comparison is available. The peer set also contains only one relatively direct operating comparator, so this remains a monitoring view rather than a high-conviction re-rating thesis.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-05eventStrong Q2 earnings resetMedium impact
Carlyle's August 5 Form 8-K furnished the Q2 earnings release and presentation. The company reported Q2 2026 distributable earnings of $472 million, fee-related earnings of $358 million, total AUM of $485 billion, and a $0.35 dividend. FRE increased 11% year over year, but no reliable consensus comparison or post-print analyst revision is available. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
2026-09-30catalystCarry and realization volatilityMedium impact
Realized performance revenues were supported by Q2 realizations, but net accrued performance revenues declined 7% sequentially. Carlyle also reported a $47 million Q2 unrealized loss in a consolidated infrastructure investment, with cumulative unrealized loss of approximately $222 million through June 30. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
2026-12-31catalystFundraising and fee-earning AUM conversionHigh impact
Q2 inflows were $16.8 billion, fee-earning AUM was $334 billion, and pending fee-earning AUM was $28 billion, creating a potential medium-term fee-growth runway if commitments convert. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology