B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
+106.8% vs current
CG
Carlyle GroupCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
+61.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
+7.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-01-06
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+17.9
Positive
Company
-4.6
Mixed
Macro
+18.6
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+100.0
Score
AI commentary
Investor tone is cautiously constructive: markets reward realized carry, AUM growth and capital returns but penalize fundraising and realization delays. Recent filings and the Jan 5 press release emphasize buybacks and an active realization pipeline; sentiment will hinge on the upcoming earnings/AUM disclosure and the timing/size of monetizations.
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-06
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-06eventQuarterly earnings / fee-related earnings updateHigh impact
Quarterly results may shift sentiment via fee-related earnings (FRE) and performance fees; date estimated as the next typical reporting window (assumed 2026-04-06) based on historical cadence [#IR][#10-Q].
2026-04-06catalystCapital returns / share repurchase announcementHigh impact
Announced buybacks or special distributions following realizations could lift the share price; no firm date disclosed—assumed short-term window (<=90 days) from as_of_date [#IR][#PR].
2027-01-06catalystLarge realizations / fund closingsHigh impact
Material portfolio exits or flagship fund closings would boost NAV and distributable earnings; timing is uncertain — assumed by 2027-01-06 (as_of_date + 365 days) reflecting typical fund life/realization cadence and disclosed realization pipelines [#PR][#EDGAR].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-01-06 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology