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CG

Carlyle GroupB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a cautiously constructive view: record FRE, nearly four-year-high distributable earnings, strong fundraising, $485 billion of AUM, and $28 billion of pending fee-earning AUM provide evidence of operating momentum. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.2.
What can break
FRE margin declined despite year-over-year FRE growth.
Momentum
40
Value
53
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $55.00 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $42.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.94
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -12.3
Value53 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +9.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FRE margin declined despite year-over-year FRE growth.
  • • Post-earnings analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, target changes, and trusted market-reaction attribution are unavailable.
  • • Earnings remain exposed to realization timing and performance revenues.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Strong Q2 earnings reset

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-12.3
Δ21d
-12.5
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-8.7
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.2
Δ21d
+9.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 39.7 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 79.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$17.3B
Beta
2.05
Shares Out
356.33M
P/E (TTM)
35.6
P/S (TTM)
5.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
112.65
Rev YoY
-43.9%
EPS YoY
-57.2%
Gross Margin
+75.1%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$10.68B
Current Ratio
0.52
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data