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CG

Carlyle GroupC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed record fee-related earnings, strong fundraising and substantial realizations; sustained conversion of pending fee-earning AUM could make recurring earnings more valuable. Carlyle Q2 release Carlyle Q2 presentation
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Pending fee-earning AUM may convert more slowly than expected; it is not current fee revenue. Carlyle Q2 presentation
Momentum
21
Value
55
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.50 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $30.50Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.79
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +0.8
Value55 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -6.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Pending fee-earning AUM may convert more slowly than expected; it is not current fee revenue. Carlyle Q2 presentation
  • • Q2 fee-related-earnings margin fell to 47% from 48% a year earlier despite higher fee-related earnings. Carlyle Q2 presentation
  • • Realization-dependent earnings may fluctuate.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

November 5 third-quarter results: fee earnings and realizations

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+8.3
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-48.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 21.5 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 51.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$36.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$13.75B
Beta
2.05
Shares Out
356.33M
P/E (TTM)
35.6
P/S (TTM)
5.90
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
89.56
Rev YoY
-43.9%
EPS YoY
-57.2%
Gross Margin
+75.1%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$10.68B
Current Ratio
0.52
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data