RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

CFFN

Capitol Federal FinancialB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Higher-yielding commercial lending, reduced borrowings and capital returns could sustain earnings and support a valuation above tangible book value. The company attributed Q4 margin expansion to commercial-loan growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
What can break
Fiscal 2026's $4 million specific valuation allowance on a nonaccrual commercial lending relationship highlights credit risk as commercial exposure grows. Company release
Momentum
45
Value
58
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.90 · Bull $10.00 · Bear $7.10Analysis 2026-10-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-30 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.50
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d +0.9
Value58 · Δ7d -1.2
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +1.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fiscal 2026's $4 million specific valuation allowance on a nonaccrual commercial lending relationship highlights credit risk as commercial exposure grows. Company release
  • • Q4 efficiency ratio rose to 53.79% from 52.10%; technology expense increased sequentially. Company release
  • • Q4 earnings declined sequentially despite margin improvement, the efficiency ratio worsened, and commercial-loan growth increases the importance of credit execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-06

Fiscal Q4 earnings reaction

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
45
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-19.3
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
-6.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 44.9 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 59.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-30
Market Cap
$1.06B
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
125.7M
P/E (TTM)
12.9
P/S (TTM)
4.41
P/FCF (TTM)
158.56
Rev YoY
+6.5%
EPS YoY
+34.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+23.1%
Net Debt
$1.94B
Current Ratio
0.03
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data