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CFBK

CF BanksharesD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best post-print argument is that Q1 still showed 13% year-over-year net income growth, positive core commercial loan growth, lower funding costs, rising fee income, strong capital ratios, and book value per share of $28.20, slightly above the May 15, 2026 anchor price of $27.21. If management is right that Q1 funding timing delayed revenue recognition into Q2, the stock could rerate modestly from a sub-book setup [#8-K-2026-05-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
A $5.0 million non-core commercial loan moved to nonaccrual in Q1 and reduced reported interest income.
Momentum
77
Value
57
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $23.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $40.00
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -5.2
Value57 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A $5.0 million non-core commercial loan moved to nonaccrual in Q1 and reduced reported interest income.
  • • External coverage appears thin, so missing analyst revision data increases uncertainty rather than confirming a positive read-through.
  • • The weaker interpretation is that the quarter did not fully clear the credit debate: Q1 NIM fell to 2.69% from 2.85% in Q4, the new $5.0 million non-core nonaccrual loan reduced interest income, past dues rose, and average-balance timing still hurt core earnings visibility.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-16

Q1 earnings reset now hinges on whether late-quarter loan growth converts into cleaner Q2 revenue

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
77
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-1.6
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+15.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 76.9 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 45.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$233.2M
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
6.49M
P/E (TTM)
10.0
P/S (TTM)
2.70
P/FCF (TTM)
6.21
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
+17.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.2%
Net Debt
-$137.09M
Current Ratio
0.90
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data