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CENX

Century AluminumB
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained LME/alumina recovery, higher smelter utilization and lower energy costs restore free cash flow and drive re-rating toward the bull target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
What can break
High energy costs or localized power disruptions at smelters
Momentum
24
Value
59
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-02-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $69.40
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -4.4
Value59 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +1.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • High energy costs or localized power disruptions at smelters
  • • Idling of capacity or production disruptions
  • • Prolonged weak LME prices, rising energy/alumina costs, or extended outages compress margins and push valuation toward the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-21

Quarterly results (estimated Q1 2026)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-0.2
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+10.7
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
-13.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 23.6 / Value 58.7 / Sentiment 69.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-20. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.66B
Beta
2.24
Shares Out
98.99M
P/E (TTM)
53.2
P/S (TTM)
1.62
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
31.89
Rev YoY
+19.7%
EPS YoY
-4938.7%
Gross Margin
+19.3%
Op Margin
+14.9%
Net Debt
$437.3M
Current Ratio
2.75
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data