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CENX

Century AluminumA
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sequential sales and adjusted EBITDA gains, completed capacity restarts, and Q3 guidance support the packet's positive directional prior. If the higher run rate persists and the Oklahoma project's legal and power hurdles clear, earnings and project optionality could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
Aluminum prices and regional premiums, alumina and other raw-material costs, and electricity costs can quickly change smelting margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
14
Value
62
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $39.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $61.33
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +3.3
Value62 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +7.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aluminum prices and regional premiums, alumina and other raw-material costs, and electricity costs can quickly change smelting margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Grundartangi equipment failures and Jamalco recovery create operating and insurance-recovery uncertainty. Company results.
  • • Q2 benefited from favorable realized metal prices and power conditions, while raw-material costs were unfavorable.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-30

Q3 results test the full-capacity run rate

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+4.2
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
+7.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 13.5 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 70.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.3B
Beta
2.24
Shares Out
98.99M
P/E (TTM)
53.2
P/S (TTM)
1.62
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
22.58
Rev YoY
+19.7%
EPS YoY
-4938.7%
Gross Margin
+19.3%
Op Margin
+14.9%
Net Debt
$437.3M
Current Ratio
2.75
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data