B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$335.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CEG
Constellation EnergyDNasdaq / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings release supports a constructive operating thesis: adjusted EPS increased year over year, full-year guidance was raised, Crane restart milestones advanced, and long-duration PPAs improve future demand visibility. Calpine expands the platform, although integration remains important.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
Brazos Valley divestiture requires DOJ approval and other closing conditions.
Momentum
79
Value
43
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $290.00 · Bull $335.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $349.89
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +4.8
Value43 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Brazos Valley divestiture requires DOJ approval and other closing conditions.
- • Calpine integration, synergies, leverage, and capital-allocation execution remain material execution variables.
- • The packet does not provide post-print analyst target or estimate revisions.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 beat and FY2026 guidance raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+26.9
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-4.0
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-5.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 79.2 / Value 43.0 / Sentiment 51.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$290.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$98.57B
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
354.31M
P/E (TTM)
40.7
P/S (TTM)
4.46
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-966.64
Rev YoY
+38.6%
EPS YoY
-46.7%
Gross Margin
+17.4%
Op Margin
+14.9%
Net Debt
$5.75B
Current Ratio
1.46
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data