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CCOI

CogentC
Nasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Improving on-net and wavelength mix, a higher adjusted EBITDA margin, discounted debt repurchases and a completed refinancing could reduce financing concerns. The Q2 earnings release reported $224.2 million of net proceeds from ten data-center sales, but that is not recurring operating cash flow.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.
What can break
Legacy Sprint-related and off-net revenue runoff may continue to outweigh on-net and wavelength growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
10
Value
39
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.18
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d +1.2
Value39 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +4.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Legacy Sprint-related and off-net revenue runoff may continue to outweigh on-net and wavelength growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Plaintiff-law-firm notices concerning securities litigation are a legal overhang, not proof of wrongdoing.
  • • Service revenue declined 4.3% year over year in Q2, off-net revenue fell 17.3%, and $750 million of notes mature in June 2027.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Planned refinancing of 2027 notes

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+5.9
Value
39
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
74
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
+12.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 10.2 / Value 39.0 / Sentiment 73.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$376.95M
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
51.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.9
P/S (TTM)
0.97
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.78
Rev YoY
-4.3%
EPS YoY
-213.3%
Gross Margin
+22.7%
Op Margin
-6.6%
Net Debt
$2.46B
Current Ratio
0.63
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data