B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
+11.6% vs current
CBSH
Commerce BancsharesBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
+4.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
-12.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+19.2
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+20.4
Positive
Pulse
-30.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+49.1
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source earnings tone is constructive, but the post-print market reaction and analyst revision picture are thin in the packet. Social, options, short-interest and employee-sentiment data were unavailable; the zero values indicate missing coverage, not neutral sentiment.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-17
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-16eventQ2 earnings beatMedium impact
Q2 EPS was $1.10 versus the stored pre-release Zacks estimate of $1.04 and $1.09 year over year; net income rose to $159.8 million. The official filing included the earnings release [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
2026-07-17catalystMargin, fee and credit momentumMedium impact
Net yield on interest-earning assets expanded 18 basis points sequentially to 3.77%, fee revenue rose $8.0 million sequentially, and annualized net charge-offs improved to 0.19% from 0.30% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
2026-07-17catalystFunding and one-off gain riskMedium impact
Average deposits declined 0.5% sequentially, the quarter included a $97.7 million securities-repositioning loss and a $105.4 million Visa gain, and expenses increased 2.0% sequentially [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology