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CBSH

Commerce BancsharesC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter net yield reached 3.77%, trust fees grew 28.7% year over year, and Commerce repurchased about 2.1 million shares. Sustained fee and net-interest income could support upside, but third-quarter confirmation is missing.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.
What can break
Credit-loss provisioning, loan quality and interest-rate changes could erode the second-quarter margin improvement.
Momentum
46
Value
54
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.00 · Bull $67.00 · Bear $47.00Analysis 2026-10-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $63.35
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d +4.5
Value54 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit-loss provisioning, loan quality and interest-rate changes could erode the second-quarter margin improvement.
  • • Nolan integration economics and purchase price were not disclosed. Commerce Bank release
  • • The second-quarter release also showed higher non-interest expense and lower average deposits quarter over quarter.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-20

Verify the third-quarter earnings date and results

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
46
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+0.7
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-19.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 45.7 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 56.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.04B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
143.43M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
4.56
P/FCF (TTM)
195.76
Rev YoY
+14.3%
EPS YoY
+1.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+33.7%
Net Debt
-$513.82M
Current Ratio
0.40
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data