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CBSH

Commerce BancsharesB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print showed improving margin, higher net interest income, broad fee growth, loan growth, improved charge-off metrics, and continued capital returns. Portfolio repositioning and FineMark-related fee growth could support earnings durability.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Balance-sheet repositioning and integration of acquired wealth or capital-markets capabilities may carry execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16]
Momentum
47
Value
60
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $63.20 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $51.00Analysis 2026-07-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $65.10
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +2.7
Value60 · Δ7d +6.7
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Balance-sheet repositioning and integration of acquired wealth or capital-markets capabilities may carry execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16]
  • • Expense growth and a higher efficiency ratio could dilute operating leverage. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-17]
  • • Near-term profitability remains exposed to expense growth, funding pressure, and provisions.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Q2 earnings beat with expanding margin and broad fee growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+2.9
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
+6.7
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+4.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 47.4 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 67.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$63.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.56B
Beta
0.61
Shares Out
143.43M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
4.56
P/FCF (TTM)
195.76
Rev YoY
+14.3%
EPS YoY
+1.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+33.7%
Net Debt
-$513.82M
Current Ratio
0.40
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data