B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CBRL
Cracker Barrel Old Country StoreFNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: management sustains margin recovery, same-store sales beat assisted by holiday demand and retail mix; buybacks continue, driving EPS and multiple expansion.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-14 · BMO.
What can break
Bear case: persistent commodity inflation and weaker traffic compress margins and guide lower, causing multiple contraction and sales misses.
Momentum
84
Value
49
Sentiment
9
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.50 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2025-12-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
35 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-09-14 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-09-11 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.00
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -4.5
Value49 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment9 · Δ7d +6.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
35Non-qualifying2026-09-14 bmo
Cracker Barrel has a visible operational improvement story and raised fiscal-2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, with consensus around $0.09 EPS and $849.4 million revenue. However, recent price action was weak, the largest volume day was a down day, and no current positive EPS revision or whisper signal was verified, leaving the setup below the investable threshold.
Screen as of 2026-09-11. Window 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-17.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-14 · BMO.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 35 / non-qualifying.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bear case: persistent commodity inflation and weaker traffic compress margins and guide lower, causing multiple contraction and sales misses.
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-14 · BMO
Upcoming quarterly earnings release (FY2025 Q3/Q4 timing)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-8.7
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-3.2
Sentiment
9
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
+6.8
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 84.2 / Value 49.3 / Sentiment 8.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.32B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
22.35M
P/E (TTM)
35.7
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM)
16.40
Rev YoY
-2.9%
EPS YoY
+239.8%
Gross Margin
+5.8%
Op Margin
-0.0%
Net Debt
$444.99M
Current Ratio
0.50
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data