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CAVA

CAVA GroupA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong Q2 traffic, same-restaurant sales, new-unit growth, and adjusted EBITDA growth support a positive operating trajectory. Continued restaurant expansion and successful new-market portability could sustain above-market growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.
What can break
Analyst revision, options, short-interest, and social-coverage data are unavailable, limiting confidence in the forward setup.
Momentum
26
Value
42
Sentiment
93
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $66.70 · Bull $89.22 · Bear $54.13Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $89.22
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d -1.8
Value42 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment93 · Δ7d -1.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revision, options, short-interest, and social-coverage data are unavailable, limiting confidence in the forward setup.
  • • Execution and unit economics must remain durable as CAVA expands into new markets and adds restaurants rapidly.
  • • Margin pressure from input costs, third-party delivery mix, and wage investments could persist.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-01

Q2 operating momentum requires validation

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+13.6
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
93
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
+9.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 25.8 / Value 42.4 / Sentiment 92.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$89.22
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$66.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$54.13
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.3B
Beta
-
Shares Out
116.81M
P/E (TTM)
54.7
P/S (TTM)
6.50
P/FCF (TTM)
290.06
Rev YoY
+31.3%
EPS YoY
+25.3%
Gross Margin
+18.6%
Op Margin
+7.3%
Net Debt
$73.22M
Current Ratio
2.48
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data