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CAVA

CAVA GroupD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Traffic-led 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth, 19.6% year-over-year restaurant growth, above-expectation new-unit productivity, and 30.0% adjusted EBITDA growth support a durable expansion thesis. The COO's August 31 open-market purchase at $66.52 provides a limited positive insider signal, though it does not prove operating momentum.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.
What can break
June insider sales, including sales by senior executives and a large shareholder, create an overhang, although an August COO open-market purchase provides a partial counter-signal. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-17] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-02]
Momentum
25
Value
43
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $55.00 · Bull $70.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-09-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $86.22
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d +9.6
Value43 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +8.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • June insider sales, including sales by senior executives and a large shareholder, create an overhang, although an August COO open-market purchase provides a partial counter-signal. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-17] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-02]
  • • Rapid restaurant expansion creates site-selection, labor, opening-cost, and new-unit productivity risk.
  • • Restaurant-level margin contracted despite strong sales, while launch costs, delivery mix, and wage investment remain execution pressures.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-01

Next-results validation of traffic-led growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+9.6
Δ21d
+13.0
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.3
Δ21d
-7.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 25.4 / Value 43.0 / Sentiment 59.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.25B
Beta
-
Shares Out
116.81M
P/E (TTM)
54.7
P/S (TTM)
6.50
P/FCF (TTM)
290.06
Rev YoY
+31.3%
EPS YoY
+25.3%
Gross Margin
+18.6%
Op Margin
+7.3%
Net Debt
$73.22M
Current Ratio
2.48
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data