B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CATY
Cathay General BancorpBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company’s SEC-filed Q2 release reported higher earnings, NIM expansion, loan and deposit growth, and lower provision expense. After the print, Stephens raised its price target to $63 from $56 while maintaining Equal Weight; third-party coverage cited a modest EPS beat and revenue beat.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
What can break
Deposit-growth guidance was reduced to 3%–4%, while competitive funding costs and sizable CD maturities could pressure NIM. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23]
Momentum
51
Value
55
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $65.50 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $53.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $65.80
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d +2.0
Value55 · Δ7d -6.1
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +4.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Deposit-growth guidance was reduced to 3%–4%, while competitive funding costs and sizable CD maturities could pressure NIM. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23]
- • Multiple directors or officers reported open-market sales during April–June 2026; this is a sentiment overhang but is not direct evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-10]
- • Forward upside is constrained by the reduction in full-year deposit-growth guidance to 3%–4%, potential repricing pressure as $3.3–$3.4 billion of CDs mature, higher non-interest expense, and pending regulatory approval for the expanded buyback.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Q2 earnings beat with continued NIM expansion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-0.9
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+6.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 50.9 / Value 54.6 / Sentiment 66.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$65.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$53.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.3B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
66.71M
P/E (TTM)
11.4
P/S (TTM)
4.29
P/FCF (TTM)
11.17
Rev YoY
-1.4%
EPS YoY
+24.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+32.7%
Net Debt
$26.5M
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data