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CAT

CaterpillarD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Stronger-than-expected orders, improved pricing/mix, and positive analyst revisions drive multiple expansion toward the upper analyst range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Cyclical downturn in construction/mining demand
Momentum
41
Value
49
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $643.28 · Bull $739.77 · Bear $482.46Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
56 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-26 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $964.84
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -30.5
Value49 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +6.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
56Near miss2026-10-29 bmo
View setup

Analyst EPS and revenue estimates have risen and Caterpillar reported strong Q2 order rates and a growing backlog, but the stock fell about 6% over five sessions and recent closes lacked strong close-location or 1.5x-volume confirmation; reports of slowing data-center booking momentum temper the otherwise constructive setup.

Screen as of 2026-10-26. Window 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-30.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 56 / near miss.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cyclical downturn in construction/mining demand
  • • Rising input costs pressuring margins
  • • A cyclical pullback in construction/mining or sustained margin pressure forces volume declines and multiple contraction below current levels.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Near-term results & guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-30.5
Δ21d
-36.9
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
+15.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 41.3 / Value 49.2 / Sentiment 47.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$739.77
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$643.28
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$482.46
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$315.8B
Beta
1.57
Shares Out
459.68M
P/E (TTM)
31.6
P/S (TTM)
4.46
P/FCF (TTM)
59.61
Rev YoY
+24.0%
EPS YoY
+68.1%
Gross Margin
+32.8%
Op Margin
+18.3%
Net Debt
$34.08B
Current Ratio
1.37
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data