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CAT

CaterpillarD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Stronger-than-expected orders, improved pricing/mix, and positive analyst revisions drive multiple expansion toward the upper analyst range.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Cyclical downturn in construction/mining demand
Momentum
44
Value
49
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $643.28 · Bull $739.77 · Bear $482.46Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $991.21
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +5.8
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment36 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cyclical downturn in construction/mining demand
  • • Rising input costs pressuring margins
  • • A cyclical pullback in construction/mining or sustained margin pressure forces volume declines and multiple contraction below current levels.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Near-term results & guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+21.7
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
36
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 44.0 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 36.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$739.77
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$643.28
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$482.46
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$405.27B
Beta
1.57
Shares Out
459.68M
P/E (TTM)
31.6
P/S (TTM)
4.46
P/FCF (TTM)
59.61
Rev YoY
+24.0%
EPS YoY
+68.1%
Gross Margin
+32.8%
Op Margin
+18.3%
Net Debt
$34.08B
Current Ratio
1.37
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data