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CARR

Carrier GlobalA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The official second-quarter release showed 3% organic growth, approximately 40% order growth, exceptionally strong commercial HVAC and data-center orders, $810 million of free cash flow, and a raised full-year outlook. These indicators support a positive view if backlog converts without further margin erosion.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Adjusted EPS declined 7% year over year, showing that improving sales and orders have not yet produced earnings growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Momentum
31
Value
53
Sentiment
88
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $69.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $77.86
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +4.0
Value53 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment88 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EPS declined 7% year over year, showing that improving sales and orders have not yet produced earnings growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
  • • Adjusted operating margin contracted 190 basis points year over year as input costs and unfavorable mix outweighed favorable volume and productivity. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
  • • Adjusted operating profit declined 6%, adjusted margin contracted 190 basis points, and adjusted EPS fell 7% year over year despite sales growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Delivery against raised 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+15.4
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
88
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+7.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 31.3 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 87.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$69.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$51.57B
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
824.33M
P/E (TTM)
33.8
P/S (TTM)
2.05
P/FCF (TTM)
67.41
Rev YoY
+3.9%
EPS YoY
-14.7%
Gross Margin
+24.7%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$10.84B
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data