B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$78.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CARR
Carrier GlobalANYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-earnings read is that Carrier produced a clean Q1 revenue/EPS beat, held FY2026 profit and cash guidance, and showed unusually strong data-center and commercial HVAC order momentum. Secondary post-print analyst coverage indicates several target increases, which supports a constructive but not aggressive interpretation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
What can break
Adjusted operating profit fell 30% year over year and adjusted operating margin fell 520 bps in Q1, showing that the beat did not resolve margin pressure. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
Momentum
30
Value
53
Sentiment
88
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $71.00 · Bull $78.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $77.86
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d +3.4
Value53 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment88 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted operating profit fell 30% year over year and adjusted operating margin fell 520 bps in Q1, showing that the beat did not resolve margin pressure. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
- • CSA residential sales were down about 12%, with factory under-absorption hurting margins, so North American residential recovery still matters. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
- • The quarter was still mixed underneath the beat: organic sales were down 1%, adjusted operating profit fell 30%, free cash flow was negative in Q1, CSA residential remained weak, and China RLC pressure continued.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 beat plus reaffirmed FY2026 outlook supports a modest post-print reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+11.1
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
88
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+7.6
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 29.9 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 88.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$71.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$51.57B
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
824.33M
P/E (TTM)
33.8
P/S (TTM)
2.05
P/FCF (TTM)
67.41
Rev YoY
+3.9%
EPS YoY
-14.7%
Gross Margin
+24.7%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$10.84B
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data