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CARR

Carrier GlobalC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Earlier-than-expected 3% organic sales growth, strong commercial HVAC orders, record backlog, and raised 2026 guidance support further growth if orders convert profitably. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Commercial sales in Climate Solutions Americas declined 8% in the second quarter because of customer delivery timing; backlog conversion remains an execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Momentum
36
Value
52
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $61.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-09-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $72.82
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -6.9
Value52 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -2.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commercial sales in Climate Solutions Americas declined 8% in the second quarter because of customer delivery timing; backlog conversion remains an execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
  • • Higher input costs and unfavorable mix outweighed favorable volume and productivity in the second quarter, compressing adjusted operating margin by 190 basis points. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
  • • Adjusted operating margin contracted 190 basis points and adjusted EPS fell 7% year over year despite sales growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Deliver raised 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.9
Δ21d
-8.4
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
-10.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 35.6 / Value 52.3 / Sentiment 62.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$46.36B
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
824.33M
P/E (TTM)
33.8
P/S (TTM)
2.05
P/FCF (TTM)
67.41
Rev YoY
+3.9%
EPS YoY
-14.7%
Gross Margin
+24.7%
Op Margin
+8.2%
Net Debt
$10.84B
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data