B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CALX
CalixCNYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 21% year over year to $293.3 million, software and service revenue reached $50.5 million, and current remaining performance obligations rose 21%. Continued demand and improving software mix could support a higher valuation.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
What can break
Customer inventory management and shipment timing could disrupt near-term revenue.
Momentum
49
Value
51
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-02 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $62.33
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d +21.7
Value51 · Δ7d -0.8
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -2.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02 · AMC.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer inventory management and shipment timing could disrupt near-term revenue.
- • Memory component inflation and incomplete surcharge recovery could prolong appliance gross-margin pressure.
- • Q2 non-GAAP gross margin fell 240 basis points sequentially to 54.8%; Q3 guidance implied a further decline at the midpoint as memory costs rose.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02 · AMC
ConneXions product demonstrations
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
49
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.7
Δ21d
+32.1
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-2.6
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
-39.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 49.5 / Value 51.2 / Sentiment 55.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.37B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
62.96M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
139.1
P/S (TTM)
3.86
P/FCF (TTM)
42.12
Rev YoY
+21.3%
EPS YoY
-8525.8%
Gross Margin
+56.6%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
-$372.51M
Current Ratio
2.83
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data