B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BZH
Beazer Homes USADNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Beazer can turn the April quarter’s weak operating print into a second-half recovery if construction costs keep falling, newer-community mix keeps improving, and buybacks amplify per-share value creation. The recent acquisition headlines also keep event-driven upside alive.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Gross margin and SG&A still showed year-over-year pressure in the fiscal Q2 2026 release.
Momentum
90
Value
34
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-06-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.50
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +2.5
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment38 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Gross margin and SG&A still showed year-over-year pressure in the fiscal Q2 2026 release.
- • Leverage remains elevated, with total debt to total capitalization at 51.2% and net debt to net capitalization at 48.7%.
- • Demand could stay soft if mortgage rates and affordability pressure remain elevated, while lower margins, weaker orders/backlog, and higher leverage limit room for disappointment.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-30
Fiscal Q2 2026 print showed softer demand and lower margins
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
90
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+7.7
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.8
Sentiment
38
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
+0.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 90.2 / Value 34.3 / Sentiment 38.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$884.96M
Beta
2.21
Shares Out
26.68M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
0.26
P/FCF (TTM)
175.44
Rev YoY
-5.3%
EPS YoY
+1349.1%
Gross Margin
+12.1%
Op Margin
-1.8%
Net Debt
$838.31M
Current Ratio
9.99
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data