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BZH

Beazer Homes USAD
NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Beazer can turn the April quarter’s weak operating print into a second-half recovery if construction costs keep falling, newer-community mix keeps improving, and buybacks amplify per-share value creation. The recent acquisition headlines also keep event-driven upside alive.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.
What can break
Gross margin and SG&A still showed year-over-year pressure in the fiscal Q2 2026 release.
Momentum
88
Value
34
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-06-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $29.50
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -1.7
Value34 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment38 · Δ7d +4.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Gross margin and SG&A still showed year-over-year pressure in the fiscal Q2 2026 release.
  • • Leverage remains elevated, with total debt to total capitalization at 51.2% and net debt to net capitalization at 48.7%.
  • • Demand could stay soft if mortgage rates and affordability pressure remain elevated, while lower margins, weaker orders/backlog, and higher leverage limit room for disappointment.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Fiscal Q2 2026 print showed softer demand and lower margins

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
+3.8
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-4.8
Sentiment
38
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
+1.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 88.4 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 38.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$884.96M
Beta
2.21
Shares Out
26.68M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
0.26
P/FCF (TTM)
175.44
Rev YoY
-5.3%
EPS YoY
+1349.1%
Gross Margin
+12.1%
Op Margin
-1.8%
Net Debt
$838.31M
Current Ratio
9.99
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data