B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BURL
Burlington StoresANYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q1 showed strong comp and margin leverage, management passed through the upside to FY26, and the Q2 guide still points to double-digit sales growth plus further EBIT margin expansion. The analyst target backdrop remains above the current price, so a durable follow-through in traffic and margins could re-rate the stock higher.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
Debt remains meaningful at $1.917B even with solid liquidity, so capital returns and debt reduction will continue to compete for cash.
Momentum
36
Value
50
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $355.00 · Bull $410.00 · Bear $270.00Analysis 2026-05-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $367.13
Why
Momentum36 · Δ7d -11.0
Value50 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Debt remains meaningful at $1.917B even with solid liquidity, so capital returns and debt reduction will continue to compete for cash.
- • Margin gains depend on continued gross margin improvement and supply-chain leverage; markdown pressure or freight cost rebound would quickly erode the EBIT bridge.
- • The market sold the stock despite the beat, which signals that expectations were already elevated and that investors are worried about valuation and the pace of deceleration from a very strong quarter.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-28
Q1 beat and FY26 guidance raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
36
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-11.0
Δ21d
+29.1
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
79
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+0.2
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 35.7 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 78.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$355.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$15.55B
Beta
1.74
Shares Out
62.82M
P/E (TTM)
34.9
P/S (TTM)
1.70
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
41.49
Rev YoY
+14.1%
EPS YoY
+13.5%
Gross Margin
+40.4%
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
$4.77B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data