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BTI

British American TobaccoD
NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful premiumization and faster-than-expected mix shift to higher-margin next-generation products, stable pricing in key markets, and positive investor reaction to margin guidance; this supports upside toward the analyst high region.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Adverse excise or regulatory changes in major markets
Momentum
26
Value
54
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $51.00 · Bull $70.00 · Bear $30.50Analysis 2026-01-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $71.92
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +5.3
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bearish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse excise or regulatory changes in major markets
  • • Slower adoption of next‑generation products or weaker combustible volume recovery
  • • Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected volume recovery, adverse excise/regulatory actions, and persistent FX/headline pressure that force multiple compression and a move toward the lower analyst range.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-12

FY2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+2.7
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+8.1
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+3.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 26.0 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 48.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$30.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$120.89B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
2.16B
P/E (TTM)
29.0
P/S (TTM)
3.46
P/FCF (TTM)
25.72
Rev YoY
-2.2%
EPS YoY
+1.7%
Gross Margin
+60.9%
Op Margin
+37.9%
Net Debt
$42B
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data