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BSP

Bending SpoonsD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
$41.08+$0.38 (+0.93%)
At close · 2026-11-13
View Chart
Current thesis
Q2 adjusted operating income reached $381 million on $704 million of revenue, and management forecast 2026 revenue of $2.78–$2.82 billion for the portfolio owned as of August 12. Successful Airtable integration and Miro closing could expand the earnings base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-20 · BMO.
What can break
Acquisition-driven growth may mask weak organic demand; Q2 organic revenue growth was 3%. SEC-filed earnings release
Momentum
79
Value
48
Sentiment
32
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $33.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $23.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
17 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-20 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-13 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-13 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-11-14 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-13

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-13. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.00
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -18.9
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment32 · Δ7d +11.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
17Non-qualifying2026-11-20 bmo
View setup

Bending Spoons has a confirmed Nov. 20 premarket report and issued Q3 revenue guidance of $733M-$745M, but checked sources did not establish positive consensus revisions or a revenue upside versus consensus. The stock’s Nov. 9–13 tape was weak, lacked a close in the top quarter of the range and showed no 1.5x-volume accumulation signal. Q2 disclosures also showed $4.09B net debt and 2.4x leverage, making risk hygiene poor for a pre-earnings surprise setup.

Screen as of 2026-11-14. Window 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-20.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-20 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 17 / non-qualifying.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acquisition-driven growth may mask weak organic demand; Q2 organic revenue growth was 3%. SEC-filed earnings release
  • • Miro may close later than Q4 2026 or fail to close because required approvals or other conditions are unmet. SEC filing
  • • Only 3% Q2 organic revenue growth accompanied the acquisition-led revenue increase.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-20 · BMO

Miro acquisition closing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.9
Δ21d
-19.9
Value
48
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
32
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.4
Δ21d
+10.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 79.4 / Value 48.3 / Sentiment 31.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-13
Market Cap
$26.98B
Beta
-
Shares Out
656.74M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-205400.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
+126.3%
EPS YoY
+171.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
$2.08B
Current Ratio
0.64
As of 2026-11-13 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data