B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BRSP
BrightSpire CapitalDNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The loan book reached approximately $3.1 billion, up more than 30% year over year, following $272 million of Q3 commitments; the new CLO expands financing capacity. Credit stabilization could narrow the book-value discount.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Q3 adjusted distributable earnings of $0.14 per share fell short of the $0.16 quarterly dividend; continued undercoverage could pressure the payout. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-27]
Momentum
18
Value
40
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.00 · Bull $5.20 · Bear $2.70Analysis 2026-10-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.89
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -0.2
Value40 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q3 adjusted distributable earnings of $0.14 per share fell short of the $0.16 quarterly dividend; continued undercoverage could pressure the payout. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-27]
- • The supplemental report identifies borrower defaults, property-value deterioration, leverage, financing availability and interest-rate mismatches as material risks. SEC supplemental presentation
- • Watchlist loans increased 38% quarter over quarter, adjusted distributable earnings did not cover the dividend, and the $0.37 GAAP EPS benefited from an asset-sale gain rather than solely recurring lending income.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-28
Q3 earnings call and credit-risk clarification
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+4.6
Value
40
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 18.1 / Value 40.0 / Sentiment 62.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$470.67M
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
126.52M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-14.3
P/S (TTM)
2.28
P/FCF (TTM)
172.28
Rev YoY
-3.1%
EPS YoY
-19.5%
Gross Margin
+60.0%
Op Margin
+34.5%
Net Debt
$2.32B
Current Ratio
1.92
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data