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BRSP

BrightSpire CapitalB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: CRE spreads tighten, CLO funding remains accessible, and distributable earnings recover; stable or modestly raised dividends with disciplined capital recycling could rerate shares toward analyst highs. Our bull target ($7.50) reflects achievable upside under a credible NAV-improvement path while remaining below the extreme analyst high.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Credit-quality deterioration in loan/CMBS holdings
Momentum
14
Value
40
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.38 · Bull $7.50 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-02-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.32
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d +0.5
Value40 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit-quality deterioration in loan/CMBS holdings
  • • Dividend reduction or suspension
  • • Bear case: funding disruption, sustained credit markdowns, or a forced dividend reduction compress distributable earnings and NAV.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-20

Dividend / distribution decision

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.7
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 14.0 / Value 40.1 / Sentiment 84.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$6.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$614.91M
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
126.52M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-18.7
P/S (TTM)
2.28
P/FCF (TTM)
172.28
Rev YoY
-3.1%
EPS YoY
-19.5%
Gross Margin
+60.0%
Op Margin
+34.5%
Net Debt
$2.32B
Current Ratio
1.92
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data