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BROS

Dutch BrosD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales and transaction growth, higher full-year guidance and continued openings support a positive operating thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Rapid openings and $350–$370 million of guided 2026 capital expenditure increase execution and cash-use risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
12
Value
42
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.00 · Bull $55.00 · Bear $29.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $70.96
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +1.9
Value42 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Rapid openings and $350–$370 million of guided 2026 capital expenditure increase execution and cash-use risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • The Salad and Go site acquisition remains unconfirmed; Dutch Bros declined to raise its offer on August 31. [#IR-2026-08-31] https://investors.dutchbros.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dutch-bros-chooses-not-increase-offer-salad-and-go-sites
  • • The raised outlook leaves less room for weaker traffic, new-shop productivity or margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Delivery against raised 2026 guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
+6.0
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-16.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 11.7 / Value 42.3 / Sentiment 59.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.25B
Beta
2.56
Shares Out
137.94M
P/E (TTM)
120.7
P/S (TTM)
6.43
P/FCF (TTM)
151.22
Rev YoY
+32.5%
EPS YoY
+37.3%
Gross Margin
+24.8%
Op Margin
+9.7%
Net Debt
$819.62M
Current Ratio
1.35
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data