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BP

BPB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case (67.0): sustained higher oil and refining margins, successful asset sales and elevated buybacks/dividends drive re-rating toward analyst highs.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Execution delays or cost overruns on transition projects
Momentum
82
Value
66
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $36.98 · Bull $67.00 · Bear $11.17Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $55.16
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -0.9
Value66 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution delays or cost overruns on transition projects
  • • Regulatory, tax or litigation actions
  • • Bear case (11.17): prolonged weak commodity prices, major execution setbacks or worse-than-expected liabilities force valuation toward analyst lows.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-10

FY2025 results & capital return update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
+6.3
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-17.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 81.8 / Value 66.4 / Sentiment 41.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$36.98
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$11.17
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$131.5B
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
2.58B
P/E (TTM)
61.1
P/S (TTM)
0.49
P/FCF (TTM)
16.34
Rev YoY
+46.7%
EPS YoY
+139.4%
Gross Margin
+19.5%
Op Margin
+11.1%
Net Debt
$35.82B
Current Ratio
1.27
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data