B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BOOT
Boot BarnCNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest bull read is that the May 14, 2026 earnings release showed record FY26 sales, EPS growth, 80 openings, positive comps across stores and e-commerce, and a still-double-digit FY27 outlook, which supports the idea that the April drawdown had overshot fundamentals [#8-K-2026-05-14]. At the $143.85 anchor price, the stock sits well below the packet's median target summary of $238.2857, though the analyst count is unavailable.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Aggressive store growth can keep occupancy and distribution costs elevated; Q4 gross margin rate already saw 50 bps of deleverage in buying, occupancy, and distribution-center costs [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Momentum
38
Value
51
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $155.00 · Bull $185.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-05-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $221.50
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -4.8
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Aggressive store growth can keep occupancy and distribution costs elevated; Q4 gross margin rate already saw 50 bps of deleverage in buying, occupancy, and distribution-center costs [#8-K-2026-05-14].
- • Boot Barn's strategy leans on exclusive-brand expansion; the 10-K warns that mis-balancing exclusive and third-party brands could hurt sales and gross profit [#10-K-2026-05-14].
- • The bear read is that FY27 same-store sales guidance slowed to 2%-4% after a 7.2% FY26 comp, Q4 gross margin rate fell 80 bps because new-store occupancy deleveraged and merchandise margin slipped 30 bps, and verified post-print analyst revision data is still thin, so the market may keep discounting a normalization story rather than paying for peak momentum [#8-K-2026-05-14].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-14
Q4/FY26 beat with FY27 guide reset higher
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
+4.8
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+6.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 37.8 / Value 51.4 / Sentiment 60.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.97B
Beta
1.67
Shares Out
30.28M
P/E (TTM)
28.6
P/S (TTM)
2.85
P/FCF (TTM)
105.91
Rev YoY
+17.7%
EPS YoY
+31.9%
Gross Margin
+38.5%
Op Margin
+13.6%
Net Debt
$632.44M
Current Ratio
2.53
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data