RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

BNED

Barnes Noble EducationC
NYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
BNC First Day continues to scale, driving higher-margin services revenue and improved unit economics; sequential margin recovery and stronger back-to-school contract wins lift multiples toward specialty-retail peers, supporting upside to $15.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.
What can break
Brick-and-mortar traffic decline and fixed-cost leverage
Momentum
96
Value
62
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-04-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.25
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d +1.3
Value62 · Δ7d -0.9
Sentiment34 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Brick-and-mortar traffic decline and fixed-cost leverage
  • • Campus contract renewals or enrollment-driven demand shortfalls
  • • Retail traffic softness, slower conversion of campus programs, or contracting margins from bookstore footprint pressures lead to revenue declines and multiple compression toward distressed retail comps, pressuring shares toward $5.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-11

Next quarterly report (follow-on to Mar 10 filings) — earnings cadence monitor

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
+36.3
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-2.2
Sentiment
34
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-18.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 96.3 / Value 62.0 / Sentiment 33.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$472.14M
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
34.67M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
27.7
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.16
Rev YoY
-4.0%
EPS YoY
-114.9%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+2.6%
Net Debt
$195.29M
Current Ratio
1.71
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data