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BLKB

BlackbaudC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Recurring revenue represented 98.2% of Q2 revenue, free cash flow improved, and management maintained its FY26 outlook. Successful second-half delivery could make the current valuation look undemanding [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
AI product announcements have not yet established a material incremental earnings contribution.
Momentum
93
Value
68
Sentiment
33
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.00 · Bull $51.00 · Bear $35.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.50
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d +7.4
Value68 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment33 · Δ7d -7.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI product announcements have not yet established a material incremental earnings contribution.
  • • August–September Form 4 filings show executive open-market sales; they are a positioning consideration, not evidence of weaker operations [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-27] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-07] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-02].
  • • Q2 revenue growth was only 3.0%, non-GAAP operating margin fell 110 basis points, and the outlook depends on stronger second-half execution.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Second-half delivery against FY26 outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
93
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.4
Δ21d
+41.5
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
33
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
-37.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 92.7 / Value 67.9 / Sentiment 32.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$2.5B
Beta
1.11
Shares Out
45.39M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
22.8
P/S (TTM)
2.57
P/FCF (TTM)
13.34
Rev YoY
+3.1%
EPS YoY
+43.6%
Gross Margin
+59.4%
Op Margin
+20.2%
Net Debt
$356.89M
Current Ratio
0.81
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data