B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BLDR
Builders FirstSourceBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
BLDR’s valuation discount and national platform could support upside if housing activity, gross margins, and operating leverage recover. Management also continues to emphasize innovation, customer capabilities, and long-term share gains [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.9.
What can break
Execution continuity following the disclosed technology and digital leadership departure requires monitoring.
Momentum
18
Value
67
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $67.00 · Bull $80.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $81.05
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -3.0
Value67 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -13.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution continuity following the disclosed technology and digital leadership departure requires monitoring.
- • Gross-margin compression and reduced operating leverage could continue.
- • The latest reported quarter showed substantial deterioration in sales, profitability, EBITDA margin, net income, and free cash flow.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 results confirmed earnings and cash-flow pressure
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
+4.1
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.4
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.9
Δ21d
-8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 18.3 / Value 66.5 / Sentiment 71.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$67.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.55B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
107.6M
P/E (TTM)
20.6
P/S (TTM)
0.77
P/FCF (TTM)
11.75
Rev YoY
-8.8%
EPS YoY
-102.2%
Gross Margin
+29.2%
Op Margin
+3.0%
Net Debt
$4.92B
Current Ratio
1.79
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data