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BLDR

Builders FirstSourceC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The nationwide builder network, value-added products and planned productivity savings could support earnings if housing demand steadies. The November Investor Day could provide more credible long-term targets, but recovery is not yet demonstrated [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] (company Q2 results); [#IR-2026-09-03] (Investor Day announcement).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Housing-affordability pressure and weaker starts could prolong organic volume declines; Q2 single-family core organic sales fell 8.1% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] (company Q2 results).
Momentum
15
Value
67
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $49.00 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-10-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $69.43
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +4.3
Value67 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment42 · Δ7d -2.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Housing-affordability pressure and weaker starts could prolong organic volume declines; Q2 single-family core organic sales fell 8.1% [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] (company Q2 results).
  • • Lower gross margin and operating leverage could overwhelm productivity savings; Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin fell 350 basis points year over year [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] (SEC earnings exhibit).
  • • Q2 core organic sales fell 7.0%, free cash flow fell to $32.2 million from $255.0 million, and management adopted a more cautious second-half outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] (SEC earnings exhibit).

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

October 29 results will test weak housing demand

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
+4.1
Value
67
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-41.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 14.8 / Value 67.0 / Sentiment 42.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.12B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
107.6M
P/E (TTM)
20.6
P/S (TTM)
0.77
P/FCF (TTM)
11.75
Rev YoY
-8.8%
EPS YoY
-102.2%
Gross Margin
+29.2%
Op Margin
+3.0%
Net Debt
$4.92B
Current Ratio
1.79
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data