B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
BKSY
BlackSkyANYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Successful satellite deployments, steady government contract wins, and accelerating subscription analytics drive margin expansion and re-rating toward high analyst outliers (~$42).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
Capital intensity and dilution risk
Momentum
10
Value
33
Sentiment
98
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-01-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.71
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d -2.7
Value33 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment98 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital intensity and dilution risk
- • Competitive pricing pressure in commercial imagery
- • Launch delays, contract timing setbacks, pricing pressure, or capital raises compress multiples and keep valuation below the base case, potentially pushing shares toward the low end of analyst ranges.
Catalyst clock
2026-03-11
FY2025 earnings release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
10
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-53.2
Value
33
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
98
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
+39.9
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 9.7 / Value 32.6 / Sentiment 97.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.26B
Beta
2.42
Shares Out
40.92M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-14.7
P/S (TTM)
8.04
P/FCF (TTM)
246.96
Rev YoY
+50.1%
EPS YoY
-57.3%
Gross Margin
+39.4%
Op Margin
-43.4%
Net Debt
$83.91M
Current Ratio
5.83
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data