B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BKSY
BlackSkyCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Gen-3 capacity and subscription demand could sustain the Q2 acceleration. The reported international subscription conversion, NRO award and NGA renewals provide identifiable demand signals, while the fifth satellite adds imaging capacity.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
What can break
Government budget uncertainty, long sales cycles and fixed-price contract cost estimation are risks identified by BlackSky. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
7
Value
32
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $13.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.71
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d -3.0
Value32 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d -1.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Government budget uncertainty, long sales cycles and fixed-price contract cost estimation are risks identified by BlackSky. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • H2 revenue must accelerate substantially to meet reaffirmed annual guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • The reaffirmed outlook requires H2 revenue of roughly $75.9 million–$95.9 million versus $54.1 million in H1.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
SkyFi app launch and commercial uptake
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-5.6
Value
32
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
85
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.1
Δ21d
+17.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 7.4 / Value 32.5 / Sentiment 85.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$719.46M
Beta
2.42
Shares Out
40.92M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.4
P/S (TTM)
8.04
P/FCF (TTM)
246.96
Rev YoY
+50.1%
EPS YoY
-57.3%
Gross Margin
+39.4%
Op Margin
-43.4%
Net Debt
$83.91M
Current Ratio
5.83
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data