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BFST

Business First BancsharesA
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 core-EPS beat, 12-basis-point core margin gain, balanced loan and deposit growth, and completed Progressive conversion support further profitability gains if funding costs remain controlled and Q4 credit resolutions occur. The deterministic prior is positive, but the share-price response so far is modest.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Competitive deposit pricing could erode anticipated Q4 margin expansion. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bfst/transcripts/714250-q3-2026/
Momentum
69
Value
60
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.50 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-10-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $37.05
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +1.1
Value60 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Competitive deposit pricing could erode anticipated Q4 margin expansion. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bfst/transcripts/714250-q3-2026/
  • • Higher securities fair-value losses increased accumulated other comprehensive loss and constrained book-value growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-26]
  • • Credit improvement lagged management's hopes: nonperforming assets were nearly flat in Q3, charge-offs increased, and management flagged competitive deposit rates.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26

Q3 earnings beat, with limited share-price follow-through

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
+8.8
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-10.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 68.7 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 62.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$34.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$1.03B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
32.35M
P/E (TTM)
10.1
P/S (TTM)
2.43
P/FCF (TTM)
11.25
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+22.3%
Net Debt
$166.91M
Current Ratio
0.26
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data