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BFST

Business First BancsharesB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a cautiously constructive view: core EPS was $0.71, margin expanded, asset-quality trends improved, and management expects acquisition conversion, liquidity redeployment, and second-half growth to add momentum [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
What can break
Deposit contraction, particularly in interest-bearing commercial and municipal balances, may pressure funding costs.
Momentum
55
Value
61
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.70 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.90
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d +2.7
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit contraction, particularly in interest-bearing commercial and municipal balances, may pressure funding costs.
  • • Legal and marketing expenses were elevated; normalization is not guaranteed.
  • • Deposits declined $229.4 million, loans held for investment fell 1.5% annualized, and expenses were elevated by marketing and legal costs.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-23

Q2 earnings showed margin expansion and improving credit

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
55
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-6.4
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-5.8
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-1.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 55.4 / Value 61.0 / Sentiment 68.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$34.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.05B
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
32.55M
P/E (TTM)
10.1
P/S (TTM)
2.43
P/FCF (TTM)
11.25
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+22.3%
Net Debt
$166.91M
Current Ratio
0.26
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data