B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BDSX
BiodesixFNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
If the Q1 2026 release confirms another clean revenue-growth quarter, maintains the FY2026 revenue framework introduced with Q4 2025 results, and shows cash usage continuing to moderate, BDSX can keep a speculative recovery case alive from a depressed market cap base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02.
What can break
As of May 4, 2026, the actual Q1 2026 earnings release was not yet confirmed on the company quarterly-results page, so the surprise and guidance read-through remain open.
Momentum
38
Value
36
Sentiment
18
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-02
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $39.00
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -44.9
Value36 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment18 · Δ7d +5.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As of May 4, 2026, the actual Q1 2026 earnings release was not yet confirmed on the company quarterly-results page, so the surprise and guidance read-through remain open.
- • If Q4 2025 margin and Adjusted EBITDA gains do not hold into 2026, the re-rating case weakens quickly.
- • If the May 4, 2026 print shows growth deceleration, weaker gross margin, renewed EBITDA slippage, or heavier financing needs, the stock likely loses the main support behind the earlier cautious-positive setup because current valuation still depends heavily on execution credibility.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
May 4, 2026 earnings release is still the immediate gating event
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
38
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-44.9
Δ21d
-64.0
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
18
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.3
Δ21d
+5.3
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 37.6 / Value 36.4 / Sentiment 17.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$224.32M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
10.55M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.6
P/S (TTM)
0.62
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.07
Rev YoY
+34.2%
EPS YoY
-54.8%
Gross Margin
+82.5%
Op Margin
-20.0%
Net Debt
$53.77M
Current Ratio
2.85
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data