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BCC

Boise CascadeB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 sales rose 5% and adjusted EBITDA rose 6%, helped by plywood pricing and volume. The James Hardie distribution expansion offers a potential longer-term share-gain avenue, but its contribution is not quantified.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Commodity wood-product pricing could reverse the Q2 plywood benefit. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
60
Value
62
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $82.00 · Bull $94.00 · Bear $61.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $93.17
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d +11.4
Value62 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity wood-product pricing could reverse the Q2 plywood benefit. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Higher distribution costs and weaker engineered-wood margins could persist even if sales grow. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Distribution EBITDA declined despite higher sales, engineered-wood demand and pricing weakened, and Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance is below Q2's result.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance test

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
60
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.4
Δ21d
+4.5
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-18.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 60.3 / Value 62.2 / Sentiment 58.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$94.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.71B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
34.89M
P/E (TTM)
15.0
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
44.10
Rev YoY
+5.2%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$45M
Current Ratio
2.71
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data