B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$101.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
BCC
Boise CascadeANYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated operating resilience: sales rose 5%, adjusted EBITDA rose 6%, and Wood Products EBITDA rose 40%, helped by plywood pricing and volume. The James Hardie agreement adds a potentially meaningful long-term distribution opportunity.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
What can break
BMD profitability declined amid higher selling, distribution, depreciation, and transition-related costs; EWP pricing and volumes also weakened. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
69
Value
63
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $90.00 · Bull $101.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-09-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $96.50
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -14.0
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • BMD profitability declined amid higher selling, distribution, depreciation, and transition-related costs; EWP pricing and volumes also weakened. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
- • Commodity pricing, tariffs, transportation, raw-material availability, customer concentration, and housing-cycle volatility could materially affect results. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
- • The earnings mix remains uneven: BMD EBITDA declined 7%, net income declined 7%, EWP pricing weakened, and Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance implies a substantial sequential step-down from Q2.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-05
Q3 earnings validation
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.0
Δ21d
-7.8
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+0.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 69.1 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 82.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.86B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
34.89M
P/E (TTM)
15.0
P/S (TTM)
0.43
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
46.48
Rev YoY
+5.2%
EPS YoY
-0.7%
Gross Margin
+13.9%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$45M
Current Ratio
2.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data