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AXR

AMREPC
NYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful acceleration of land closings and higher average selling prices, materially improving FY2026 margins and free cash flow and supporting a re-rating toward higher small‑cap RE peers.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-15.
What can break
Local housing/land price weakness in core markets
Momentum
76
Value
50
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-03-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-09-15
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.00
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -
Value50 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-15.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Local housing/land price weakness in core markets
  • • Lumpy timing of land sales and project closings
  • • Bear case assumes continued lumpy land-sale timing, weaker-than-expected average prices or project delays that compress margins, reduce free cash flow and pressure the multiple.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-15

Next quarterly results / land-sales cadence update (expected June 2026)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 76.0 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 60.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$121.14M
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
5.32M
P/E (TTM)
9.7
P/S (TTM)
2.19
P/FCF (TTM)
22.55
Rev YoY
-1.4%
EPS YoY
-67.6%
Gross Margin
+40.5%
Op Margin
+23.4%
Net Debt
-$52.52M
Current Ratio
30.74
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data