B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
AXR
AMREPBNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful acceleration of land closings and higher average selling prices, materially improving FY2026 margins and free cash flow and supporting a re-rating toward higher small‑cap RE peers.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Local housing/land price weakness in core markets
Momentum
76
Value
50
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-03-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.00
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -
Value50 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Local housing/land price weakness in core markets
- • Lumpy timing of land sales and project closings
- • Bear case assumes continued lumpy land-sale timing, weaker-than-expected average prices or project delays that compress margins, reduce free cash flow and pressure the multiple.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-12
Next quarterly results / land-sales cadence update (expected June 2026)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 76.0 / Value 50.2 / Sentiment 70.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$111.77M
Beta
1.44
Shares Out
5.32M
P/E (TTM)
9.7
P/S (TTM)
2.19
P/FCF (TTM)
22.55
Rev YoY
-1.4%
EPS YoY
-67.6%
Gross Margin
+40.5%
Op Margin
+23.4%
Net Debt
-$52.52M
Current Ratio
30.74
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data