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AVTX

Avalo TherapeuticsC
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Positive LOTUS topline results support advancement of abdakibart, while Avalo reported $472.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments at June 30, 2026 and expected runway into 2029. Successful Phase 3 initiation could make the program more investable.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
AbbVie's positive Phase 3 lutikizumab HS results increase competitive pressure; cross-trial efficacy rankings would be misleading. AbbVie release
Momentum
2
Value
58
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $7.00 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $44.91
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -5.4
Value58 · Δ7d +17.1
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -38.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +17.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AbbVie's positive Phase 3 lutikizumab HS results increase competitive pressure; cross-trial efficacy rankings would be misleading. AbbVie release
  • • Avalo reported $23.4 million of second-quarter R&D expense, including a $10 million abdakibart development milestone; Phase 3 and AVTX-010 could raise future spending despite stated runway into 2029. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Avalo remains dependent on translating Phase 2 findings into a successful pivotal program.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-23

HS competitor data may reset the efficacy bar

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
2
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.4
Δ21d
-10.1
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.1
Δ21d
+16.8
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-38.3
Δ21d
-7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 2.4 / Value 57.8 / Sentiment 59.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$371.66M
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
53.63M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.2
P/S (TTM)
1514.00
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.11
Rev YoY
-69.3%
EPS YoY
-56.5%
Gross Margin
-84.7%
Op Margin
-34632.3%
Net Debt
-$95.95M
Current Ratio
19.31
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data