B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVT
AvnetCNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest near-term bull argument is that April's company release showed a real operational inflection: record EC sales, double-digit sequential and year-over-year growth, better margins, lower inventory days, and Q4 guidance that still implies sequential growth [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
A June-quarter miss versus the $7.30B-$7.60B sales and $1.70-$1.80 adjusted EPS guide would likely challenge the current recovery thesis.
Momentum
83
Value
52
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $86.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-05-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $106.25
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -0.5
Value52 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +2.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A June-quarter miss versus the $7.30B-$7.60B sales and $1.70-$1.80 adjusted EPS guide would likely challenge the current recovery thesis.
- • Fresh post-earnings analyst revision evidence is not available in the packet, limiting conviction on how durable the rerating is.
- • The main bear argument is that Avnet remains tied to a cyclical channel recovery; Q3 operating cash flow was still a $54 million use of cash to support rapid sales growth, and sustaining higher margins will require demand to remain firm through the June quarter [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-27
Q4 FY2026 guidance keeps the recovery test alive into late June
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-6.0
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.6
Δ21d
+14.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 82.9 / Value 52.2 / Sentiment 52.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.24B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
82.23M
P/E (TTM)
18.2
P/S (TTM)
0.18
P/FCF (TTM)
18.02
Rev YoY
+47.7%
EPS YoY
+1987.4%
Gross Margin
+10.4%
Op Margin
+3.1%
Net Debt
$3.32B
Current Ratio
1.78
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data