B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVT
AvnetDNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest near-term bull argument is that April's company release showed a real operational inflection: record EC sales, double-digit sequential and year-over-year growth, better margins, lower inventory days, and Q4 guidance that still implies sequential growth [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
What can break
A June-quarter miss versus the $7.30B-$7.60B sales and $1.70-$1.80 adjusted EPS guide would likely challenge the current recovery thesis.
Momentum
82
Value
52
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $86.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $74.00Analysis 2026-05-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $106.25
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d -0.9
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +2.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A June-quarter miss versus the $7.30B-$7.60B sales and $1.70-$1.80 adjusted EPS guide would likely challenge the current recovery thesis.
- • Fresh post-earnings analyst revision evidence is not available in the packet, limiting conviction on how durable the rerating is.
- • The main bear argument is that Avnet remains tied to a cyclical channel recovery; Q3 operating cash flow was still a $54 million use of cash to support rapid sales growth, and sustaining higher margins will require demand to remain firm through the June quarter [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-27
Q4 FY2026 guidance keeps the recovery test alive into late June
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
+2.1
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.3
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+3.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 81.6 / Value 52.2 / Sentiment 48.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.09B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
82.07M
P/E (TTM)
18.2
P/S (TTM)
0.18
P/FCF (TTM)
18.02
Rev YoY
+47.7%
EPS YoY
+1987.4%
Gross Margin
+10.4%
Op Margin
+3.1%
Net Debt
$3.32B
Current Ratio
1.78
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data