B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
AVBC
Avidia BancorpCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
AVBC has fresh conversion capital, was well-capitalized at year-end, and entered 2026 with improved margin and lower-cost deposit mix, so a clean Q1/Q2 reporting cycle could let investors reframe 2025's credit issue as isolated rather than structural [#10-K-2026-03-27].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Additional credit costs tied to commercial real estate, construction, or land exposure
Momentum
69
Value
38
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $21.50 · Bull $23.50 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $25.00
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +1.8
Value38 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Additional credit costs tied to commercial real estate, construction, or land exposure
- • Community-bank funding sensitivity if deposit competition re-accelerates
- • The investment case is still dominated by proving that the 2025 land-loan charge-off was a one-off.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 2026 results and first 10-Q reset the post-conversion narrative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+6.1
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-6.9
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
+0.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 68.9 / Value 37.7 / Sentiment 61.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$447.54M
Beta
-
Shares Out
19.97M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-126.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
9.24
Rev YoY
+5.5%
EPS YoY
+100.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.3%
Net Debt
$277.61M
Current Ratio
0.04
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data