RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

AVAH

Aveanna HealthcareB
Nasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q2 operating result and higher FY2026 guidance support a constructive thesis, with preferred-payer expansion, reimbursement tailwinds and higher organic-growth targets providing potential upside. California reimbursement and caregiver-capacity improvements could add value in 2027.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-18.
What can break
California reimbursement publication or implementation may be delayed.
Momentum
98
Value
64
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-08-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.60
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -0.3
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -0.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-18.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • California reimbursement publication or implementation may be delayed.
  • • Caregiver wage increases may offset reimbursement gains and limit margin expansion.
  • • Gross margin declined year over year despite revenue growth, and higher reimbursement is expected to be passed through partly as caregiver wages.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-13

Q2 beat and FY2026 guidance raise

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+2.6
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-2.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 98.3 / Value 63.8 / Sentiment 58.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.77B
Beta
2.06
Shares Out
218.22M
P/E (TTM)
22.4
P/S (TTM)
0.75
P/FCF (TTM)
20.81
Rev YoY
+13.7%
EPS YoY
+39.6%
Gross Margin
+31.8%
Op Margin
+11.4%
Net Debt
$1.32B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data